Obama was voted into office because he was different than the average candidate. He had the ability to enthuse the American people with his charming rhetoric and inspirational message of change. In a time when the economy was sinking, job loss was skyrocketing and the country was at war Obama was able to offer hope for the future. Voters ate it up, they believed in him. Here was a younger, fresher politician. A Washington outsider who would change the way the presidency was run. A messiah, if you will, that would solve all of the country’s problems and make big changes.
In his State of the Union speech, Obama tried to recapture the mood of his campaign. He reminded voters that he is on their side, not Washington’s side, and that he sympathizes with their concerns. Only this time around, it was a hard sell. A year of slow-moving decisions and failed health care reform has turned supporters into skeptics. People just aren’t seeing the change that was the focus of his campaign. The euphoria that the Democrats experienced after a successful, driven campaign has faded.
That being said, Obama is in danger of losing the support of a key demographic that could make or break an election: young voters. Voters ages 18-29 turned out in record numbers for the 2008 election. If the Democrats fail to come up with and pass a solid health care reform bill that people can actually support, these voters (who are the most likely to be affected by the bill) may pass on 2012 elections.
The state of the economy will without a doubt still be a major factor in the 2012. Even if the job market is improved, the country will still be far from recovered. People lack patience; they want the economy fixed now. If they don’t feel that there has been enough “change” they may wish to hedge their bets with the next Republican candidate that comes around (providing that it’s not someone with the name Palin.) America is a nation that likes to place blame. Fingers were pointed at the Bush Administration and in 2012 they could very well be pointed at Obama.
Obama’s major downfall is his unwillingness to veer away from his extreme statist policies, even when they clearly aren’t working. He’s attempting to push through a healthcare reform bill that just isn’t popular. In 1996, Clinton stopped pushing HillaryCare and focused on bipartisan solutions. Clinton realized that in order to accomplish anything, he needed to lean more towards the center and away from big government.
Scott Brown’s election win in Massachusetts is a prime example of America’s centrists view. Republicans have acknowledged that Brown appeals to independents and moderate democrats because he does not represent traditional republicanism. Brown’s victory should be a wakeup call to Obama that at this point, the country is more moderate than left-leaning.
According to Polifact.com, Obama has broken 15 promises so far. For a president who is dealing with a “deficit of trust” these broken promises are significant. His new budget projection shows an increase from last year, a contradiction to his many statements that he would reduce spending. Domestic discretionary spending was increased by 84 percent, a fact that Republicans are making noise about. They are calling out his credibility and ability to lead, serious allegations when he’s already on a slippery slope.
If Obama doesn’t quickly re-evaluate his strategy and accept blame for failed policies, he could be opening the door for a Republican in 2012. Because voters so passionately believed in him, they will easily be disappointed if he doesn’t do what is expected of him. His campaign of change won’t be enough to carry him to another term if he can’t produce results.
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Tags: gop · obama · scott brown · State of the union1 Comment
Huge problems with this post, Ashley. And, I’m just in the mood to be moody.
1. Tired of the ceaseless horse race narrative approach everybody applies. Obama has precisely been the type of president he promised he would be during the campaign. One of my friends calls him Spockish and I think the characterization is apt. It is way too early to speculate on anyone’s political fortune. Look at previous presidents and you’ll see just how quickly the CW is proven wrong. Reference Bush I after the 1991 Gulf War when his popularity was in the 80s or Reagan in 1982.
2. Sweeping generalizations are misrepresentative here. If I go back and read the State of the Union, Obama did a better job at articulating what were once classic GOP platform planks better than anyone else has. I’ve never have perceived Obama to be as left-leaning as liberals, media, GOP, conservatives, opinion hacks, etc. have tried to frame in to be. I was an Obama supporter long before the CW had him pegged as being a viable candidate to take down Hillary. Going back and reading much of what he said during the campaign and what has been slowly emerging in this Administration, I think the assessment would be quite different. The problem is in this age of cut-and-paste journalism and ridiculously terse soundbites where the context disappears completely for any meaningful analysis. I think Obama is leading by way of being a catalyst. The most recent example being the movement on DADT shows this quite well. Adm. Mullen and Sec’y Gates earlier this week showed just how the tipping point on policy occurs. And, even less prominent Republicans and moderate conservatives are willing to take up the tack of more responsible discussion for reform legislation.
3. Obama never promised himself to be a savior. Iconoclastic liberals pegged that label on him and they’ve been irresponsible in their public statements. Obama is boring to them. The New Yorker’s James Surowiecki nailed it right on the money. Obama’s inclinations are pragmatic. He’s a problem solver. Campaign rhetoric aside, Obama has managed his plate quite well. What magic did people realistically think was going to happen after the disaster that was Bush’s final year in office. Surowiecki said it well: “As has been pointed out numerous times, ‘Bad as things are, they would have been much worse without me,’ isn’t exactly inspiring. That doesn’t make it any less true.”
Truth is Obama will never be the media darling that some think he is or some would like him to be. In some respects, before McCain lost his bearings in 2008, he was the media favorite.
And, I think the polls are far more worrisome for Congress than for the President, who sometimes does seem to be the only adult in a roomful of annoying, self-absorbed, self-indulging kindergarten children (read the Dems and Reps in Congress).
Voters do surprise the CW. Scott Brown’s election proved that. However, Brown’s win was less a mandate against Obama than it was one against the starkly irresponsible campaign posturing of his opponent.
Finally, I would prefer to see side-by-side point-counterpoint here. Otherwise, the blog’s “voice” becomes too confusing.