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Research has shown that there is a strong correlation between the health of the economy and “trust” in government. Unemployment, GDP growth, foreclosures rates and economic boons may lead people to believe in their government more than lack of corruption scandals or unsavory politicians. This makes perfect sense. As James Carville used to remind Governor Clinton in ‘92, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
But with today’s multi-tasking administration, it’s not just the economy, stupid. There’s more than one 500-lbs. gorilla: healthcare, Afghanistan, Iraq, immigration, nuclear weapons, Iran, and global warming, just to rattle off the ones populating the front pages. Reform is used often enough by President Obama to dizzy some Americans unsure of change. The massive undertaking underway is enough to stoke claims of “radicalism,” “socialism,” and any other -ism that oversimplifies reality.
Obama’s numbers began to sag after his first big push, the stimulus package. This was in part due to his team not controlling the narrative, and being too cautious in selling the measure, avoiding accusations of overzealousness. The fight for healthcare, the wars, and overhauling the economy seemed to sap his already dwindling political capital. Many pundits, from Left to Right, considered his presidency dead soon after his first anniversary. What these pundits failed to understand, or maybe decided to ignore, was that approval numbers and overall trust in government were bound to fall. The sausage was being made.
In politics, when the sausage is being made, it is not a pleasant sight to see. Deals are cut, compromises are accepted, denied, and renegotiated, and unlikely alliances are built, leaving some Americans with an awful aftertaste of “opportunism.” But once the politics are pushed aside, and tangible benefits and reforms are enacted, people can see government for what it is: gradual progress based on consensus-building. That is not the sexiest thing in the world, but neither is a sausage factory.
The last couple of weeks before healthcare was passed (and then passed again, thanks to the Senate Republicans doing some parliamentary shenanigans that amounted to fouling the other team, 15 points down and with 5 seconds left in the 4th quarter), you could sense a bit swagger emanating from the White House. Even if healthcare reform would not be all it could be (no public option, no strengthening of reproductive rights), it was reform, and it was substantial. It was considered on life-support by almost everyone at least once in the past year, and nearly moribund after Scott Brown was elected. Once Obama used 22 pens to sign the most sweeping domestic legislation in the last 30 years, the sausage began to cook.
His poll numbers have jumped considerably, almost over night. The legislation is already favored by the majority of Americans, when just a month ago most considered it unsavory. Talks of a GOP takeover in November are falling to a whisper. One victory has led a couple more (student loans, nuclear arms pact), and may lead to yet a few more (global warming and immigration). The American people woke up the day after healthcare reform was passed and saw America as they knew it was still there, intact and on solid ground. The sausage was made, and they, along with Obama and Pelosi, were able to stomach it. Now, they are starting to smell the treats.
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