photocredit: j_bary (flickr)
People shouldn’t care about voting in off-years, right? Tell that to Maine voters who gay marriage shouldn’t be allowed; or upper New York Republicans voting with a Democrat that was more in line with their values; or recently blue Virginia wondering how blue they wanted to be. Yesterday’s results may not have wide ramifications for 2010 or 2012, but it will certainly affect the attitude both parties enter with the new year.
It was a bad night for the Democrats. No matter which way the yarn is spun, Democrats lost two governorships, saw a cause they tacitly embrace (considering Democrats champions of gay marriage is a tad foolish) suffer resounding defeat, and leave doubts in the air as to how much clout Obama has in local politics.
Republicans won, but dancing a victory shuffle misses the point. Polling shows that those who voted for Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey did not do so in protest of President Obama’s job thus far. In New Jersey, 57% of all voters approved of the president; in Virginia, he still garnered a 51% rating. In fact, 27% of New Jersey voters that liked the job the president was doing voted for someone other than the Democratic incumbent, Gov. Corzine. Same thing happened in Virginia: 20% of Obama supporters voted for the Republican, Bob McDonnell. Obama’s clout in the national scene is not being questioned, but his influence in local races has yet to be proven.
Local politics ruled the day. In NJ, people who voted to keep Corzine cited national issues (healthcare, the environment) as their top priority; those voting for the Republican challenger, Chris Christie, cited local issues (taxation, corruption) as what mattered most to them. In NY’s 23rd District, a Democrat won for the first time in 100 years because the Conservative, Doug Hoffman, was too right-wing and too out of touch with local politics to keep this district in Red.
The interesting thing in Maine was the turnout. Pro-gay marriage activists thought a high turnout would play in their favor, but this was not the case. A high turnout turned out to be a resounding defeat for the equal-rights cause, not just because of the final split (52%/48%), but because it was in blue-state Maine. This defeat was also important because of the promise it represented for the gay marriage movement. This could’ve been the first time gay marriage was approved by popular vote, not a court’s ruling.
While many pundits will call this a referendum on Obama, it’s more of a referendum on the Democrats and conservative politics.
Weak Democratic candidates were still weak even after Obama campaigned for them. All of the candidates Obama campaigned for were defeated. Even the Democrat Obama kinda sorta maybe supported, and probably only because he had to, Bill Thompson for NY Mayor, lost (although by a much smaller margin than many predicted). This bodes very poorly for Obama. If his popularity (which he still has) cannot be transferred to candidates he endorses, how can he assure Senators and Congresspeople voting on his ambitious agenda that he will be there to give them a boost when they are up for re-election? He is asking them to jump off a cliff, unable to assure them his net will hold.
As for conservatives, Tuesday was not a cause for celebration. Branded conservatives lost in all races. Hoffman, the conservative Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh vigorously campaigned for, lost in NY. Republican Chris Christie in NJ was a moderate running on his anti-corruption record as a federal prosecutor. Republican Bob McDonnell in VA is a conservative that ran on a moderate platform, knowing the c-word was not in style anymore.
The people that won Tuesday were not brandishing their right-of center credentials, but hiding them. Obama’s power was tested, and, due to underperforming candidates and the inability to make the national local, had it swatted down. He came out hurt, but Democrats, and their progressive agenda, came out hobbling.
You might want to check these out, too:
Tags: corzine · democrats · gay marriage · hoffman · new jersey · new york · obama · republicans · virginia2 Comments
Hey Jaime,
How raarrr you? I’ll be sure to cite you as a source in my email, haha.
In response to your recent blog, I think one of the major issues that the Democrats should be focused on is their loss of support from independent voters. I believe 60% of independents voted from Christie, and 1/3rd of voters in Virginia are independent. Though perhaps the reason for independents voting for Republicans has nothing to do with the Democrats, but rather that the Republicans are pushing a more moderate platform like you said.
Anyways, interesting and intelligent blog.
[...] is a noticeable strut to Michael Steele’s step nowadays. After last Tuesday big “wins,” the RNC Chairman finally feels good about his work as the ceremonial head of the party [...]